AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #160 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
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TOUR DAY 3: BEANS FIRM, CORN FLAT, HORMUZ TIGHTENS

Soybeans hold gains as Cargill lockout ends and tanker traffic at Hormuz slows further; corn goes nowhere on day three of the Pro Farmer tour.

WED UPDATEWhat will Pro Farmer scouts find, and does the tour push December corn above $4.90 or back below $4.75 by Friday?
THE TAKEAWAY

Beans have the news; corn is waiting on scouts. Watch Thursday's tour summary.

Soybeans closed at $12.11, up 4.5 cents, and finished well off the day's highs after profit-takers hit the afternoon session. Corn sat exactly flat at $4.65. The tour is halfway done, boxed beef is sharply higher, and the Cargill Fort Morgan lockout just ended. Three things changed today. The prices mostly didn't.

Corn$4.65
Soybeans$12.11
Wheat$6.64
THE NUMBER
3.7%
real Midwest farmland value decline, Q2 2026 year-over-year
The Fed's Seventh District posted its steepest inflation-adjusted farmland value drop since 2016. Strong cash rents are masking the pressure on paper, but asset values moving against producers is a borrowing-power story, not just a balance-sheet footnote.
DAILY QUOTE

“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”

Winston Churchill
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called wheat up toward $6.83; wheat closed $6.64 today, down from $6.77 yesterday.
Missed it cleanly. Wheat dropped 13 cents on the day, moving the wrong direction entirely. The call was wrong; own it and move on.
TOUR DAY 3: BEANS LEAD, CORN WAITSMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERUSDA reported 136,000 MT soybean sale; Pro Farmer tour ongoing, no summary yet.
↺Beans: firmed where corn couldn't follow; tour still the deciding data.
  • Soybeans closed at $12.11, up 4.5 cents, but the afternoon told you who was driving: profit-takers knocked beans well off session highs after USDA reported a single 136,000-ton sale, a fine number but not a demand statement.
  • Corn sat exactly flat at $4.65 for a second straight session; scouts are still in the field and no summary has dropped, so the board has nothing to trade.
  • November beans at $12.28 held better than nearby, which says the market is pricing new-crop pod fill, not old-crop demand.
Beans have a buyer and a catalyst; corn is in a holding pattern until scouts report.
FORT MORGAN DEAL DONE; CATTLE FIRMMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERCargill Fort Morgan lockout ended; screwworm found in Juarez near reopening date.
↺Cattle: Fort Morgan resolution lands; screwworm in Juarez adds new wrinkle.
  • The Cargill Fort Morgan lockout ended after five months as Teamsters Local 455 ratified a new five-year contract, closing the chapter on the roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity that had been removed since May 19.
  • Live cattle at $224.97 ticked up 0.3%, supported by boxed beef values described as sharply higher in Wednesday's session, a genuine demand signal, not just position noise.
  • The screwworm story complicates the reopening math: a new find in Juarez raises the risk that the Aug 24 Douglas, AZ port reopening gets paused if US authorities see increased risk in Sonora or Chihuahua.
Processing capacity comes back, but feeder supply may not if the border reopening slips.
→ If you are backgrounding feeders targeting fall placement: the Aug 24 port date is now conditional. Watch the Juarez screwworm report before pricing Mexican feeder expectations into your break-even.
HORMUZ TIGHTENS AGAIN; CRUDE HOLDSMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERTwo Chinese VLCCs made U-turns in Hormuz; tanker traffic slowing per ship-tracking data.
  • WTI held at $84.99, up 0.4%, a fourth straight positive session as ship-tracking data showed two Chinese supertankers making U-turns in the Strait of Hormuz, idling rather than transiting, a behavioral signal the market is watching closely on the freight side.
  • The Iran-Hormuz situation, which re-escalated in early July with vessels hit and tankers reversing course, has now reached a point where commodity vessel traffic is visibly slowing, adding a supply-chain cost story on top of the price story.
  • Diesel tightness remains the actual input-cost pressure for fall fieldwork; crude at $85 is not alarming, but refined fuel shortages and the Iran war's impact on global refining margins are the real number to track.
Hormuz is a freight story now as much as a price story; diesel tightness is what hits the field.
THE MORE YOU KNOW
The pod-fill window that sets the bean crop
With 85% of soybeans in pod-setting stage, the next 10-14 days of overnight lows matter more than daytime highs. Beans set seed weight when nights stay above 55 degrees Fahrenheit; a cold snap now cuts yield faster than a dry week will. That is why the board is watching the 6-10 day outlook, not just soil moisture.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Thu Aug 20, 7:30 AM CTWeekly Export Sales: soybeans under 300K MT total keeps beans in chart-driven mode; above 500K MT confirms demand is real, not just position noise.
  • Thu Aug 20, mid-dayPro Farmer tour Day 4 summary: corn ear counts above 182 bu/acre is your exit window for old-crop; below 178 adds a yield premium that could push December corn through $4.90.
  • Fri Aug 21, all dayPro Farmer national crop tour number released; this resolves the week's question on December corn direction above $4.90 or back below $4.75.
  • Aug 24, borderDouglas, AZ feeder cattle port reopening: paused or proceeding depends on USDA screwworm risk assessment in Chihuahua following the Juarez find.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
DISEASE
Screwworm Found in Juarez; Aug 24 Port Reopening at Risk
A new screwworm detection in Juarez, directly across from El Paso, puts the phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports at Douglas, AZ on uncertain footing. If US authorities assess elevated risk in Chihuahua, the border stays closed and the feeder supply tightness that powered this summer's rally extends further.
MACRO
Midwest Farmland Values Down 3.7% in Real Terms, Steepest Since 2016
The Federal Reserve's Seventh District reported inflation-adjusted farmland values fell 3.7% year-over-year in Q2 2026, the sharpest real decline in a decade. Cash rents have held, but producers relying on land equity for operating credit lines are carrying softer collateral into fall loan renewals.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CBOT/CME settlement prices; Brownfield Ag News; Beef Magazine; OilPrice.com; FarmPolicy News; Farm Doc Daily; USDA export sale announcement · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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