AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #159 — ARCHIVE
! Cautious
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
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HORMUZ FLARES AGAIN; TOUR SCOUTS FIND GOOD CROPS

A vessel hit in the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent above $91, but WTI pulled back; Pro Farmer scouts are seeing strong conditions in Iowa and Minnesota.

TUE UPDATEWhat will Pro Farmer scouts find, and does the tour push December corn above $4.90 or back below $4.75 by Friday?
THE TAKEAWAY

Hormuz noise is real but familiar; the tour's Wednesday corn-ear summary is this week's actual price mover.

The Iran-Hormuz cycle, which re-escalated in early July when commercial vessels were hit and crude ran multi-percent sessions, is back: a cargo vessel took a projectile in the Strait early Tuesday and Brent topped $91. WTI at $83.88 tells you the market is taking it seriously but not panicking yet. Meanwhile, Pro Farmer scouts are one day into the belt and the early read is a big crop: Iowa corn and beans both at 78% good-to-excellent.

Corn$4.67
Soybeans$12.10
Wheat$6.77
THE NUMBER
78%
Iowa corn rated good-to-excellent
Iowa is the largest corn state. Scouts reporting 78% good-to-excellent on day one of the Pro Farmer tour points toward a crop that can support USDA's 180.7 bu/acre August yield estimate, or pressure the board if the ear-count data confirms it Thursday.
DAILY QUOTE

“Willful waste makes woeful want.”

Scottish Proverb
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL PLAYED OUT
Called November beans up through $11.94; beans-nov closed at $12.25, well through the target. p0 was $11.81, so the level was above entry at call time and the close confirmed it.
Call played out. Beans ran from $11.81 to $12.25 overnight, clearing the $11.94 trigger cleanly. No complaint here -- the direction and level were right.
TOUR DAY ONE: BELT LOOKS GOODMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERPro Farmer tour underway; Iowa 78% G/E, Minnesota 66-67% G/E reported Tuesday.
↺Corn: ratings firmed the bearish thesis; board unmoved pending ear data.
  • Iowa corn and soybeans both at 78% good-to-excellent and Minnesota at 66-67%; that early read from the Pro Farmer scouts is the heaviest signal the market has seen since the August WASDE cut yield to 180.7 bu/acre on Aug 12.
  • December corn added a penny and a quarter to $4.92, not enough to call a direction; the board is waiting on Wednesday's ear-count summary, not reacting to crop ratings alone.
  • Central Illinois and Indiana are dealing with moderate lowland flooding after last week's multi-inch rainfall, a local yield drag that scouts will sample but that alone won't move the national number.
Good crop ratings on day one put the burden of proof on the scouts, not the bulls. Wednesday's ear count decides.
→ Old-crop corn: hold through Wednesday's scout summary. If ear counts come in above 182 bu/acre, that is your exit window before the board softens.
WHEAT LEADS; HORMUZ IS THE REASONMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERUnidentified projectile hits vessel transiting Hormuz; Houthis claim third Aramco refinery attack in two weeks.
  • Chicago wheat added 3.25 cents to $6.77, the best performer in the grain complex Tuesday, with a cargo vessel hit in the Strait of Hormuz early in the session pushing export-risk premium into winter wheat.
  • The Iran-Hormuz cycle, ongoing since early July, has now produced a third vessel incident; Brent topped $91 on the news before pulling back, and wheat caught a freight-risk bid that corn and beans did not.
  • The Houthis also claimed a third attack on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery Tuesday, adding a second Red Sea headline to the same morning, which reinforced the wheat export-disruption premium.
Wheat is doing the heavy lifting in grains today, and the fuel is geopolitical, not domestic supply.
CATTLE STEADY; FORT MORGAN DEAL CHANGES THE MATHMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERCargill Fort Morgan union ratifies contract; processing resumes September 7, ending the May 19 lockout.
↺Cattle: Fort Morgan deal is the new variable; structural story is now actively resolving.
  • Live cattle added modestly to $224.38 while feeders slipped 0.3% to $339.80; the spread between the two contracts is the tell as the Aug 24 Douglas, AZ port reopening for Mexican feeder imports approaches.
  • The Cargill Fort Morgan lockout, ongoing since May 19 and removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity, is now resolved: union members ratified a new contract Tuesday and harvesting resumes September 7.
  • That September 7 restart removes the processing constraint that has kept packer margins tight all summer; watch for box-beef cutout to respond before the cattle board fully reprices.
The Cargill lockout resolution is the structural shift of the week; feeder/live spread is the tell heading into Aug 24.
CRUDE PULLS BACK DESPITE HORMUZ FLAREMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERHormuz vessel strike pushes Brent above $91; diesel crack spread tops $100/bbl for first time.
  • WTI eased 1.6% to $83.88 even as Brent briefly topped $91 on the Hormuz vessel strike; the divergence tells you the US market is weighting domestic supply builds against the geopolitical premium rather than chasing the headline.
  • The diesel crack spread topped $100 per barrel for the first time, per oilprice.com, making diesel the real input-cost story for fall fieldwork, not crude.
  • Natural gas slipped to $2.69, at the bottom 4% of its 52-week range; no input-cost story there.
Watch diesel, not crude: the $100 crack spread is what hits your harvest budget, not the WTI headline.
THE MORE YOU KNOW
The $100 diesel crack spread and what it costs per acre
The diesel crack spread, the refinery margin between crude and diesel, topped $100 per barrel Tuesday for the first time on record. At roughly 5-6 gallons of diesel per acre for corn harvest, a $1 per gallon pass-through from refinery margins to rack prices adds $5-6 per acre directly to your combine cost. That number does not show up in the WASDE.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Wed, Aug 19 (midday)Pro Farmer Day 2 scout summary: corn ear counts above 182 bu/acre national pace softens December corn; below 179 adds premium. This is the week's price trigger.
  • Friday, Aug 21, 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales: soybeans below 300K MT keeps the tour in charge of the price story; above 400K MT adds a demand leg.
  • Saturday, Aug 22 (morning)Pro Farmer national tour estimate: the number that grades USDA's 180.7 bu/acre corn yield. Above 182 is bearish; below 179 reopens the bull case.
  • Monday, Aug 24Douglas, AZ feeder cattle port reopening: first Mexican feeder imports since the screwworm closure. Watch the feeder/live spread Monday morning for the market's read on pace and volume.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
POLICY
USDA Extends Disaster Relief Deadline to September 30
USDA pushed the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program application deadline to Sept. 30 and added flexibility for 2023 and 2024 quality losses. Producers who missed earlier windows for weather-related quality damage should check FSA eligibility before the deadline.
WEATHER
Indiana Flooding Hits Some Fields After 11-Inch Rainfall
Parts of Indiana received over 11 inches of rain in three days, with lowland flooding ongoing in central Indiana and Illinois. Yield drag in affected fields is real and local; Pro Farmer scouts will sample it, but it is unlikely to move the national tour average.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME Group settlement prices; Pro Farmer Crop Tour field reports; Brownfield Ag News; oilprice.com; Drovers; USDA FSA; EIA; National Weather Service. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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