LEAN HOGS RUN 17%; CORN, BEANS END WEEK SOFT

Friday closed a week of quiet grain pressure, a surprise hog move, and a Farm Bill that ran out of road before the Senate recess.

THE TAKEAWAY

Hogs moved; grains didn't hold. The crop tour and Aug 12 WASDE decide what's next.

Lean hogs had their biggest single-session gain in years, closing at $95.50, up 16.9%, while corn fell hard to $4.39 and beans gave back $0.28 to $11.56. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is nine days out. Until those scouts are in fields, favorable August rains across Missouri and much of the Belt keep the burden of proof on the bulls.

Corn$4.39

Soybeans$11.56

Wheat$6.40

Grains End Week SoftMEDIUM CONVICTION

Nearby corn fell hard to $4.39, down 5.4% on the session; December corn held better at $4.62, off half a cent, showing the market is pricing a crop that finishes, not one that fails.
Soybeans dropped to $11.56, down 2.4%, as Brownfield noted fund and technical selling with near-term weather forecasts still generally favorable across much of the Belt, including welcome early August rains in Missouri.
Wheat bucked the complex, closing at $6.40, up 1.3%, the one contract where weather uncertainty outside the U.S. still earns a bid.

December corn at $4.62 is the line: a healthy crop tour in two weeks pushes it lower.

Hogs Move Hard; Cattle FirmsMEDIUM CONVICTION

Lean hogs closed at $95.50, up 16.9%, a move with no clean catalyst in the news bucket; looks like fund repositioning or a gap fill, but a print that size demands confirmation Monday.
Live cattle rose to $231.70, up 2.9%, and feeders closed at $351.65, also up 2.9%, with Brownfield citing tight feeder supplies as the ongoing driver behind feeder strength.
The Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19, still removes roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity; any resolution restores that flow and presses feeders back toward $330.

Cattle setup is real and supply-driven; the hog print needs Monday confirmation before it means anything.

Farm Bill Hits a WallMEDIUM CONVICTION

The Senate Ag Committee markup ended the week without a path forward; University of Illinois policy specialist Jonathan Coppess said publicly he is losing confidence a bill crosses the finish line this year.
The sticking point that surfaced loudest: mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL) made it into the Senate text, drawing trade-group pushback that complicates the vote math before the Sep 30 extension deadline.
Year-round E15 language is in the revised Senate text and represents a real structural corn-demand tailwind, but it means nothing until a bill actually passes.

Sep 30 deadline is real; a failed bill means another extension and zero structural demand signal for corn.

Energy: Crude Holds; Iran Premium DeflatesLOW CONVICTION

WTI crude settled at $78.18, up just 0.2%, despite Citi raising its Q3 Brent forecast to $80 as the U.S.-Iran conflict, ongoing since late spring and centered on the Strait of Hormuz, has repeatedly failed to produce a deal restoring normal oil flows.
The Iran-Hormuz cycle has now built and unwound twice since April; oil traders are staying largely bearish, betting on a peace deal even as hostilities expanded toward the Red Sea, per Oilprice.com.
Natural gas at $2.66 is only 3% off its 52-week low; diesel, not crude, stays the real fall-fieldwork input cost story.

Crude is priced for resolution, not escalation; watch how Hormuz headlines trade the next flare.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

The Spread That Separates a Good Crop From a Great One

Nearby corn fell 5.4% Friday while December lost only 0.5%, widening old-crop to new-crop carry to $0.23. When that spread widens late in the growing season, the market is pricing a harvest that arrives in volume. Carry working is the calendar's way of saying: nobody needs corn right now.

THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST

Tuesday, Aug 11, 3:00 PM CTUSDA Crop Progress: corn condition below 65% good/excellent restores weather premium; above 68% adds pressure to December corn at $4.62.
Wednesday, Aug 12, 11:00 AM CTAugust WASDE: corn yield above 183.0 bu/acre and bean yield above 53.0 bu/acre confirms the bear case. Any downward revision changes the story.
Friday, Aug 14, 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales: beans under 400K MT says the China commitment (May 18 deal, through 2028) is not pulling forward new-crop demand yet.
Monday, Aug 24Phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports at Douglas, AZ. The feeder/live spread is the tell as that date approaches.

WEEK AHEAD IN AGWhat's brewing for next week.

LOGISTICS

New Grays Harbor Export Terminal Opens, Doubles Ag Throughput

AGP and the Port of Grays Harbor opened Terminal 4 this week, a facility built to more than double ag commodity export capacity through the port. For producers moving new-crop beans and meal to Pacific Rim buyers, more terminal capacity means more competition for bids and potentially tighter basis over time.

TRADE

ADM, General Mills, Walmart Back 40,000-Acre Regen Wheat Push

A new supply-chain collaboration targets regenerative agriculture on 40,000 wheat acres across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. It does not move today's board, but premium contract acres tied to major buyers are becoming a structural feature of the Central Belt wheat market worth tracking.

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.

Know a farmer who’d want this?

Forward this briefing. Or new here? Subscribe in one tap.

Subscribe →

CME Group settlement prices; Brownfield Ag News; Feedstuffs; The Fence Post; Oilprice.com; EIA; USDA calendar. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT