AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #149 — ARCHIVE
! Cautious
Friday, August 7, 2026
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FARM BILL STALLS; GRAINS END WEEK SOFT

Wheat firmed on weather while corn and beans drifted lower to close a week that gave crop tour optimists little to cheer.

FRIDAY RESOLUTIONWill Pro Farmer crop tour data add a weather premium back into corn and beans, or confirm the Belt is on pace?
!Overnight Surprise: Gold UP 1.8%
THE TAKEAWAY

Wait on new crop beans; the farm bill and the tour will move this market, not today's drift.

The week ends with corn at $4.39, beans at $11.60 on the nearby, and a farm bill that Senate Agriculture Committee partisanship may have killed for the year. Pro Farmer tour scouts don't hit fields for another 10 days. Until then, favorable Belt weather keeps the bear case alive and the bull case renting by the week.

Corn$4.39
Soybeans$11.60
Wheat$6.38
THE NUMBER
238,000
metric tons of new crop US beans China bought
China picked up 238,000 MT of new crop US soybeans ahead of the weekend, under the May 18 purchase commitment. It lifted the nearby but Nov '26 still dropped 8.5 cents on favorable crop weather. Demand is real; the crop is real too.
DAILY QUOTE

“The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know.”

Harry S. Truman
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called soybeans up toward $11.76 ($11.535 when the call was made). It closed at $11.6.
Miss. computed.outcome is 'didnt' and that is the call. Nov beans hit $11.76 on the close but the upward follow-through never materialized intraday; favorable Belt weather and fund selling kept new crop under pressure all session. Own it and move on.
Wheat Firms; Grains End SoftMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERFavorable Belt weather forecasts and end-of-week fund selling pressured corn and new crop beans; wheat caught a weather bid.
↺Beans: Thursday's bounce handed back to the weather bear on Friday.
  • Chicago wheat added 6.75 cents to $6.38, its best session of the week, with Brownfield citing weather-driven positioning and winter wheat concerns while corn and beans drifted.
  • Nov '26 soybeans dropped 8.5 cents to $11.76 on favorable Belt weather and a China purchase that lifted the nearby without moving new crop; fund and technical selling did the rest.
  • Corn eased to $4.39 on the nearby, Dec '26 at $4.62, with disease pressure noted in Nebraska and Colorado but temperatures there limiting severity per FMC field reps.
Wheat is the only grain with a near-term weather story; corn and beans need the Pro Farmer tour.
Cattle Mixed; Feeders HoldMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERCattle futures mixed on spread trade; feeder supply tightness from screwworm-driven Mexico border closure continues to support feeders per CME close data.
  • Feeders at $345.08 gained roughly 1% on tight supply, still pricing the Mexican import closure even as the Aug 24 Douglas, AZ phased reopening approaches.
  • Live cattle at $231.48 barely moved, up 0.1%, with the October contract at $225.27 doing the real work; the Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19 and still holding roughly 6,000 head of daily capacity offline, keeps fed cattle price discovery constrained.
Feeders priced scarcity all week; the Aug 24 reopening is now the clock to watch.
Farm Bill Optimism FadesMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERFarm bill optimism fades per University of Illinois analyst after Senate Ag Committee markup devolved along party lines Thursday.
  • University of Illinois ag policy specialist Jonathan Coppess said publicly Friday he is losing confidence the 2026 Farm Bill crosses the finish line this year after Senate Ag Committee markup showed sharp partisanship, putting the Sep 30 extension deadline in sharper focus.
  • Year-round E15 is in the Senate text and matters for corn demand, but it cannot help anyone until a bill passes; the SNAP state cost-share delay aimed at Democratic holdouts did not appear to bring enough votes.
Another extension is now the base case; year-round E15 demand tailwind stays hypothetical until the vote.
Energy and Macro: Gold Leads, Crude EasesLOW CONVICTION
●DRIVERADNOC vessel attack disclosures and Citi Brent forecast revision; gold move flagged as overnight surprise.
  • WTI crude at $77.08 eased 1.2% even as ADNOC reported 15 vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz; Citi lifted its Q3 Brent forecast to $80 but still sees oil lower in 2027, a read consistent with the Iran-Hormuz cycle, ongoing since early July, building and deflating twice already.
  • Gold at $4,400 rose 1.8% and the dollar at $99.60 slipped 0.4%, a combination that keeps commodity input costs from getting much relief and adds a cautious macro tone into the weekend.
Hormuz risk is priced and re-priced weekly; diesel, not crude, is the fall fieldwork cost to watch.
THE MORE YOU KNOW
Used Combines Getting Cheaper: A Harvest-Cost Tell
CLAAS remarketing manager Jeff Madsen says an abundant supply of used combines is softening prices heading into harvest. That is a two-sided story: lower equipment costs help cash-strapped operators, but the glut says farmers who bought iron at peak prices are now liquidating. Watch used-equipment markets as a proxy for producer financial stress.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Aug 10, Monday 3 PM CTUSDA Crop Progress: corn good-to-excellent above 68% keeps the bear case intact; a drop below 63% reopens the weather premium conversation.
  • Aug 12, Wednesday 11 AM CTAugust WASDE: corn yield at or above 183 bu/acre confirms the bear setup; a cut below 181 is the number that changes the week.
  • Aug 14, FridayCattle on Feed report (monthly, third Friday): placement and on-feed numbers will reset the fed cattle narrative heading into fall.
  • Aug 24Phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports at Douglas, AZ: feeder/live spread narrows if the first shipments come through cleanly.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
RURAL
US Cropland Tops $6,000 Per Acre for First Time
USDA data shows average US cropland values crossed $6,000 per acre in 2026, the first time ever. For producers refinancing, renting, or making land decisions into 2027 corn and bean budgets, the cost basis just got more expensive to justify at current grain prices.
LOGISTICS
AGP, Port of Grays Harbor Open New Export Terminal
Agricultural Partners opened Terminal 4 at Washington's Port of Grays Harbor Friday, a facility capable of more than doubling ag commodity export throughput through the port. More West Coast export capacity is structural good news for Pacific Rim demand; watch whether basis firms at Pacific Northwest elevators in the weeks ahead.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME Group settlement prices; Brownfield Ag News; Feedstuffs; OilPrice.com; Agri-Pulse; Farm Policy News; EIA; CLAAS of America; University of Illinois farmdoc. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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