AGSIST DAILY · ARCHIVE
Sunday, September 13, 2026
▼ Bearish WEEKEND EDITION

BEANS HOLD $12.99; CRUDE AT $100, WEEK AHEAD

THE ACTION

Unpriced new-crop beans: hold above $12.99; a close below $12.85 any day this week is the sale signal, not a reason to watch further.

Soybeans closed Friday at $12.99 after shedding 24 cents on the WASDE print, and that level is now the line every unpriced bushel is measured against. Crude held just under $100 as oil traders priced a longer Iran conflict, not a resolution.

THE NUMBER
180.7
bu/acre, USDA Sept corn yield
USDA cut corn yield 2.3 bu from July on the Aug 12 WASDE. Early harvest reports this week are the first field check against that number.
DAILY QUOTE

“Know what you own, and know why you own it.”

Peter Lynch
BEANS AND CORN: WASDE HANGOVER
  • November beans closed Friday at $12.99, right where the WASDE drop left them; the bounce that would say 'noise' never came, and the weekend gave nobody a reason to own them.
Beans need a bid Monday or $12.85 becomes the next test by midweek.
CRUDE BELOW $100; IRAN WAR PRICED LONGER
  • WTI closed Friday at $99.99, off 3.1%, as the Iran-Hormuz cycle (a re-escalation that has run since July, with the Strait effectively shut since March per oil traders) shifted from acute-risk to priced-in-for-years framing.
Crude under $100 is not a buying window for farmers; lock fall diesel now.
CATTLE FIRMS; FEEDERS PUSH HIGHER
  • Live cattle closed at $219.62, up 0.8%, and feeders at $337.88, up 1.6%, with political noise around mCOOL and beef imports adding headline volatility but not changing the processing-constrained fundamental.
  • The Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19, still removes roughly 6,000 head of daily capacity; the cattle are there, the kill slots are not.
Cattle firm on tight processing, not demand; watch the Douglas reopening pace.
THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST
  • Monday, 3:00 PM CTCrop Progress: corn harvest pace above 10% says early fields are moving; below 5% adds weather and yield uncertainty.
  • Thursday, 7:30 AM CTExport Sales: beans under 700K MT keeps the WASDE break in charge; above 900K MT is the first recovery signal.
  • All weekNovember beans vs $12.85: a close below it confirms WASDE direction; hold is the only trade above it.
OUTSIDE THE PITNot moving prices today, but worth knowing.
MACRO
Oil Industry Models Years-Long Iran War, Not a Cycle
Producers and refiners are now planning for a structural Iran conflict, not an episode. That reprices crude risk from seasonal to structural and keeps diesel elevated through 2027.
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, Certified Crop Adviser (CCA). Reply at sig@farmers1st.com. I read everything.
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USDA WASDE Aug 12, USDA Crop Progress, CME Friday closes, farmdocdaily.illinois.edu, oilprice.com, beefmagazine.com, feedstuffs.com · Compiled 12:22 PM CT Sun
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