WHEAT FIRMS; EPA BIOFUEL EXEMPTIONS HIT THE BOARD

Chicago wheat rose 1.9% on overnight momentum while EPA granted 1.76 billion gallons of RFS exemptions, a direct hit to ethanol demand math.

TUE UPDATEWill today's Crop Progress rating confirm the August yield cuts or add a weather premium back into corn and beans?

THE TAKEAWAY

EPA's 1.76 billion gallon exemption is the ethanol demand hit corn hasn't priced yet.

Wheat is the only grain doing anything today, up nearly 15 cents to $7.60 while corn barely twitched and beans gave back three cents. The real story isn't the price action: it's the EPA quietly handing 18 refineries full RFS exemptions this morning, removing 1.76 billion gallons of biofuel obligation from the 2025 compliance year. Corn's ethanol demand argument just got smaller.

Corn$5.12

Soybeans$12.76

Wheat$7.60

↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T

Called beans up toward $12.85; November beans closed today at $13.01 but nearby beans slipped to $12.76.

Old-crop vs new-crop spread is doing the work; the thesis needs nearby beans to confirm.

WHEAT LEADS; CORN IGNORES EPAMEDIUM CONVICTION

●DRIVEREPA granted 18 full SRE exemptions totaling 1.76B gallons, cutting 2025 RFS blending obligations.

↺Corn: flat again, but now an EPA catalyst is in the queue.

Chicago wheat firmed to $7.60, up nearly 15 cents, extending the run that has been the one clean story in grains all week; the Ukraine drone strike on Russia's Ust-Luga oil export terminal overnight added a fresh export-disruption bid under Black Sea grain routes.
Corn at $5.12 is essentially flat, holding 96% of its 52-week range, but the EPA's 1.76 billion gallon biofuel exemption decision published this morning removes a chunk of the ethanol demand logic that has kept corn elevated.
December corn at $5.37 looks like a market that hasn't done the math yet.

Wheat has a story; corn has a price without one. The exemption news is what today hands you.

→ December corn at $5.37 with harvest beginning: the EPA exemption is a demand headwind the board hasn't moved on yet. If you have unpriced new-crop, the September WASDE on the 10th is your next real window, but don't assume the price holds there.

HOGS FIRM; CATTLE HOLDLOW CONVICTION

●DRIVERHogs caught broad risk-on lift after Trump Iran strike threat; cattle processing constrained by Cargill lockout.

Lean hogs ran to $83.67, up 2.2%, the day's biggest livestock move; no single fundamental driver in the news block, but the Trump threat to strike Iran overnight lifted risk appetite broadly and hogs caught a bid.
Live cattle settled at $212.65, up modestly, still sitting at just 15% of the 52-week range; the Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19, keeps roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity offline and packer margins remain the binding constraint.
Feeders at $321.10 are steady, with the Aug 24 Douglas, AZ phased reopening of Mexican feeder imports now one week in; the feeder/live spread is worth watching as that supply begins to count.

Hogs are the one livestock name with momentum today; cattle need a processing catalyst to move.

CRUDE UP; NATGAS SLIPSMEDIUM CONVICTION

●DRIVERTrump Iran strike threat; Ust-Luga drone attack; EIA LNG export data up 23% first-half 2026.

WTI crude rose to $88.01, up 1.5%, after President Trump threatened new strikes on Iran following the first exchange of fire in weeks; the Iran-Hormuz cycle, a July re-escalation that cooled into August and has now flared again, is back pricing geopolitical risk into crude.
Natural gas slipped to $2.87, down 1.8%, even as EIA reported U.S. LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, up 23% year-over-year; the export story is structural, but spot gas is following warmer-than-seasonal forecasts lower.
Diesel, not crude, is the harvest input that matters: watch crack spreads, not WTI, for your combine budget.

Crude running on Iran headlines again; natural gas is cheap but the LNG export pace says that doesn't last forever.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

Small Refinery Exemptions Are Not New -- The Scale Is

EPA has granted SREs since the RFS was written in 2005, but the 2025 batch -- 1.76 billion gallons across 18 refineries -- is the largest single-year exemption pool since the program's 2019 peak of 2.61 billion gallons. Every exempted gallon is one fewer bushel of corn that has to become ethanol.

TODAY'S WATCH LIST

Mon 3 PM CT (published yesterday)USDA Crop Progress: corn condition ratings above 60% good/excellent keep the August yield cuts as the ceiling; below 55% adds a weather bid into December corn above $5.37.
Wed, ongoingCargill lockout watch: 6,000 head/day offline since May 19; any settlement announcement moves live cattle faster than the fed trade will.
Thu 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales: wheat above 400K MT confirms the board is right to run; beans under 700K MT says Chinese demand is episodic, not a trend.
Thursday Sep 10, 11 AM CTSeptember WASDE: corn carryout consensus is 1.65B bu; a print below 1.5B is the line that forces a re-rating of December corn above $5.50.

OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.

TRADE

Canada Counter-Tariff List Published on U.S. Ag Products

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service published the full list of U.S. ag products now facing Canadian retaliatory tariffs. Any producer with Canadian export exposure, pork, wheat, and specialty crops top the list, should pull the FAS schedule before the next contract rolls.

RURAL

Farm Finance Deterioration Eased Slightly in Q2 2026

Federal Reserve ag lender survey says farm income and credit conditions kept deteriorating in Q2 but the pace slowed. That's not a green light, it's a slower bleed; producers carrying operating loans into harvest should ask their lender where covenant thresholds sit before corn prices move.

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.

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CME Group settlement prices; USDA AMS; EPA RFS SRE announcement; EIA Natural Gas Monthly; OilPrice.com; FAS Canadian counter-tariff list; Federal Reserve ag credit survey; farmpolicynews.illinois.edu · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT