AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #152 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
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WASDE EVE: CORN FLAT, BEANS SPLIT

The August WASDE prints Wednesday at 11 AM CT; December corn held $4.62 while nearby beans firmed on soyoil strength and field reports point to a better-than-expected crop.

TUE UPDATEDoes the WASDE on Tuesday confirm a record or near-record corn yield, and does that break Dec corn below $4.50?
THE TAKEAWAY

Corn held $4.62 into WASDE eve; beans split old crop from new. USDA prints tomorrow at 11 AM CT.

[Correction, posted late morning Aug 11: the emailed edition of this briefing described the August WASDE as already released. It had not — it prints Wednesday, Aug 12 at 11:00 AM CT. Every price in this briefing was and is real; the framing below is corrected, and the changelog carries the full account.] December corn didn't flinch on WASDE eve, flat at $4.62 for the second straight session. Nearby beans added nearly 5 cents on soyoil running up 2.1%, with 62% of the crop rated good-to-excellent holding the floor under new-crop. The weekly thread's question doesn't get its answer today — the WASDE prints tomorrow at 11 AM CT, and the market is positioned like it already knows what USDA will say.

Corn$4.38
Soybeans$11.61
Wheat$6.41
THE NUMBER
6
vessels transiting Hormuz on Monday
Six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, down sharply from recent averages, as Iran-US talks stalled again. Crude barely moved Tuesday, but that vessel count is the tell: the Iran-Hormuz cycle is not done compressing freight and diesel costs for fall fieldwork.
DAILY QUOTE

“You reap what you sow.”

English Proverb
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Called corn up, toward above $4.45 on Monday Aug 10. Dec corn closed flat at $4.62 today, nearby off a quarter-cent.
Corn didn't move toward any new level either way; pre-WASDE positioning neutralized the call.
WASDE EVE; GRAINS SIT STILLMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERAugust WASDE prints Wednesday 11 AM CT; field reports from SD, IL show crop resilience.
↺Corn: flat again — the defined risk event is Wednesday's print.
  • December corn sat flat at $4.62 into Wednesday's WASDE, the market having priced its crop story all week: record or near-record yield expected, no surprise cut to demand.
  • Nearby corn eased a quarter-cent to $4.38; the old-crop/new-crop carry held at $0.24, telling you merchandisers still see supply as the story, not basis.
  • Field reports from Illinois and South Dakota added texture: dry-summer corn in SD performing better than expected, northwestern Illinois crops exceeding expectations, keeping any weather bid off the table.
Corn sat still into the WASDE. $4.62 is the line; the print is Wednesday, the Pro Farmer tour Aug 17 after that.
BEANS SPLIT: OLD CROP FIRMS, NEW CROP EASESMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERUSDA: 62% of US beans rated good-to-excellent; soyoil up 2.1% on crude/oil share widening.
↺Beans: soyoil provided the catalyst yesterday's grains section was missing.
  • Nearby beans added 4.75 cents to $11.61, pulled higher by soyoil running up 2.1% on the day as crude held and the oil share of crush value widened.
  • Nov beans eased 1.75 cents to $11.78 as crop-confirmation expectations ahead of Wednesday's WASDE capped new-crop demand optimism; 62% of the US crop rated good-to-excellent, per USDA, is the number keeping fund buyers cautious on the forward contract.
  • China's $17 billion annual US ag purchase commitment (May 18 deal, through 2028) is visible in the board but not driving fresh buying today; the buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact pattern has capped follow-through all summer.
Old crop gets a soyoil lift; new crop waits on tour numbers. The spread between them is the honest opinion on this crop.
→ If you are holding unpriced new-crop beans, $11.78 is a reasonable target ahead of the Pro Farmer tour Aug 17; a strong tour pulls the bid lower.
CATTLE FIRMS; FEEDERS EASEMEDIUM CONVICTION
●DRIVERCargill lockout continues; tight ready numbers support live; Aug 24 border reopening pressures feeders.
  • Live cattle added 0.5% to $232.80, supported by tight ready numbers as the Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19, continues removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity.
  • Feeders eased 0.3% to $350.55 as the Aug 24 phased reopening at Douglas, AZ for Mexican feeder imports stays in the price; the market is not waiting for that date to arrive before discounting it.
  • No new development on the lockout or the border today, which means the setup from last week holds: feedlot margins negative, feeder/live spread still wide, and the next real catalyst is either a return-to-work announcement or the Aug 24 border date.
Cattle acting like a patient buyer still exists above $230. Feeders are pricing the supply return, not the scarcity.
CRUDE HOLDS; HORMUZ TIGHTENS AGAINLOW CONVICTION
●DRIVERIran releases six conditions; US-Iran talks stall; Hormuz transit drops to 6 vessels Monday.
  • WTI held at $82.21, up just 0.1%, as Iran-US peace talks faded again after Iran released six conditions that got a predictably cold reception from Washington.
  • The Iran-Hormuz cycle, a pattern of escalation and deflation ongoing since late April, produced its tightest transit count of recent weeks Monday at six vessels through the strait, per Bloomberg vessel data.
  • Natural gas eased to $2.76, down 0.5%, keeping the energy input picture quiet for now; diesel, not crude, remains the fall-fieldwork cost story.
Six vessels through Hormuz is a low number. Crude is not panicking, but fall diesel costs are not settled.
THE MORE YOU KNOW
The WASDE Yield Number That Actually Moves Markets
USDA's August WASDE carries the first surveyed yield estimate of the season -- before August, numbers are modeled from planting data alone. Wednesday's print is the first number scouts in the field can actually argue with. That is why the Pro Farmer tour, starting Aug 17, matters: it is the only independent check on USDA before the September revision.
TODAY'S WATCH LIST
  • Mon Aug 17, 3 PM CTPro Farmer Crop Tour begins Aug 17-20. Scout yield estimates below USDA's trend add weather premium; above trend gives bears a clean exit below $4.60 Dec corn.
  • Friday Aug 14, 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales. Soy under 300K MT keeps new-crop Nov beans in fund-driven range; above 400K MT reopens the $11.90 conversation.
  • Monday Aug 24Douglas, AZ border reopens for Mexican feeder imports. Watch feeder/live spread that week; any compression below $115 says supply is arriving faster than the market priced.
  • OngoingHormuz vessel count. Six transits Monday is recent low; if it stays under 10 for a third day, diesel risk for fall fieldwork becomes a real input-cost conversation.
OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
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Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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CME Group settlement prices; USDA WASDE release calendar; USDA crop condition ratings; Brownfield Ag News field reports; OilPrice.com Hormuz vessel data; Beef Magazine; Farm Policy News. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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