CROP TOUR BEARS DOWN; WHEAT LEADS GRAINS HIGHER

Pro Farmer scouts in the field kept corn and beans under pressure Wednesday, but wheat found 6 cents and crude recovered hard.

WED UPDATEWill Pro Farmer crop tour data add a weather premium back into corn and beans, or confirm the Belt is on pace?

THE TAKEAWAY

Wait on new crop beans until the Pro Farmer tour numbers are fully in.

November soybeans drifted to $11.70, down 9 cents, as Pro Farmer tour scouts keep building a bearish field picture day two. Corn gave back another quarter cent to close Dec at $4.61. Wheat went the other direction, up 6 cents to $6.43, and crude recovered 2.4% to $76.39. The tour is doing exactly what it was supposed to do: it is replacing the weather premium with yield data.

Corn$4.38

Soybeans$11.49

Wheat$6.43

↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T

Called soybeans down, toward below $11.59. Nov beans closed $11.70, off 9 cents but still well above $11.59.

Direction was right, beans did fall, but the level has not been reached; tour data still in play.

Tour Presses Beans LowerHIGH CONVICTION

Nov soybeans settled at $11.695, down 9 cents, as Pro Farmer scouts reported favorable development weather in key Belt areas and USDA held its good-to-excellent rating steady, giving bears no reason to cover.
Nearby beans held at $11.49, flat -- old crop is done, new crop is the question the tour is actively answering.
The board is not pricing weather risk right now; it is pricing yield data as scouts walk fields. That is the shift from last week.

Tour is building the bear case in pod counts and ear sizes, not weather forecasts. A Thursday yield estimate above 1,350 pods per 36 sq ft is the next number that matters.

Corn Drifts; Wheat FirmsMEDIUM CONVICTION

●DRIVEREPA grants one full, two partial small refinery RFS exemptions; wheat short-covering on oversold technicals.

December corn slipped to $4.61, off 2.75 cents, tracking the soybean tone and a crude oil rally that didn't translate into ethanol demand optimism after today's EPA small refinery exemption news.
Chicago wheat moved the other direction, up 6.25 cents to $6.43, with no clear Belt catalyst, looks like short-covering after three days of losses and a firmer global tone.
Oats fell 16 cents, nearly 5%, the single biggest magnitude mover in the complex today; no specific news driver in the grains bucket, looks like fund liquidation.

Corn has no friend in this tape until tour or Aug 12 WASDE changes the yield story.

Cattle Rebounds; Feeders LeadMEDIUM CONVICTION

●DRIVERCash cattle firmed to $233; Plains heat event tightened near-term cattle supply; Cargill lockout ongoing.

Feeder cattle moved to $345.95, up 0.9%, getting a lift from lower corn and a cash market that firmed to $233 per hundredweight after weeks of cutout pressure.
Live cattle held at $231.85, up just 0.2%, still processing last week's heat-related cattle death losses across the Plains, which tightened near-term supply and steadied the cash tone.
The Cargill multi-plant lockout, ongoing since May 19 and still removing roughly 6,000 head of daily processing capacity, keeps fed cattle price discovery constrained; the Aug 24 Douglas, AZ feeder import reopening is the next structural event.

Feeders are acting like the supply story is still tight, and for now it is.

Crude Recovers; Macro FirmsLOW CONVICTION

●DRIVEREIA data showed China crude imports fell in Q2 on Hormuz disruption pricing; macro risk-on bid lifted equities and gold simultaneously.

WTI crude rose to $76.39, up 2.4%, the biggest single-session gain in several weeks; China's crude import data showed second-quarter demand weakness tied to elevated prices during the Iran-Hormuz disruption cycle, ongoing since early spring, but the market read today's move as oversold recovery after Tuesday's hard drop.
S&P 500 rose 1.8% to $7,736 and gold added 1.8% to $4,261, a combination that says the bid was macro risk-on, not commodity-specific.
Natural gas held at $2.69, flat, sitting at just 4% of its 52-week range; diesel tightness remains the real input-cost watch for fall fieldwork, not crude.

Crude recovery is macro, not a new energy supply story; input costs for fall fieldwork are not moving materially today.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

The Rollercoaster Belt: When a Bad Start Meets a Good Finish

BASF agronomists flagged Wednesday that the Western Corn Belt fought persistent dryness all season, stress that typically shows up as reduced ear size or pod counts even when the finish looks clean. Pro Farmer scouts walking fields right now are the first systematic read on whether the late-season recovery actually offset the early-season stress. Watch the pod-count numbers, not just the condition ratings, when tour results roll out Thursday.

TODAY'S WATCH LIST

Thu Aug 6, 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales: soybean sales below 300K MT keeps the tour in charge of the price story; above 500K MT gives bulls a reason to fight back.
Thu Aug 6, Senate Ag CommitteeFarm Bill markup: year-round E15 stays in or comes out; passage out of committee before recess is the make-or-break gate for structural corn demand.
Thu-Thursday Aug 6-7Pro Farmer tour yield estimates released: corn yield above 184 bu/ac and bean pods above 1,350/36 sq ft is a full weather-premium washout.
Monday Aug 24Douglas, AZ feeder import reopening: watch feeder/live spread for the first pricing of returning Mexican supply; a spread narrowing below $110 signals the market is already there.

OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.

POLICY

Farm Bill Senate Markup Tomorrow: Year-Round E15 on the Line

Senate Ag Committee marks up the 2026 Farm Bill Thursday, with year-round E15 now in the Senate text per the Aug 1 revision. Sen. Boozman called it make-or-break. If the bill clears committee and reaches the floor before the Aug 8 recess, it is the first real structural corn-demand tailwind in two years.

MACRO

Farmer Sentiment Rebounds for First Time in Three Months

Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer showed farmer sentiment improving in its latest reading, the first uptick after three straight down months. The Farm Bureau's own assessment was blunter: AFBF president called the farm economy 'terrible' with low prices and high input costs. The rebound is a data point, not a trend.

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.

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CME Group settlement prices; USDA Crop Progress; Pro Farmer crop tour field reports; Brownfield Ag News; Feedstuffs; Beef Magazine; Drovers; EIA crude import data; Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer; EPA RFS exemption release. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT