AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #135 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Friday, July 25, 2026
🟡 Sponsor this slot →
WHEAT DROPS 3%; CATTLE BOUNCE INTO COF
Wheat gave back its July gains in a single session while cattle firmed ahead of this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, and soybeans added to the week's gains on hot-and-dry forecasts into early August.
🧵 FRIDAY RESOLUTIONDoes the USDA Crop Progress report confirm the corn pollination stress the nearby futures are pricing, or does a clean crop condition reading reverse the front-month break?
Wheat fell 21 cents to $6.79, dropping sharply in what the Feedstuffs recap called straight profit-taking after a strong bull run, and that's exactly what it looks like: no new bearish headline, just a market that ran too far too fast and finally gave some back. Soybeans told the opposite story, tacking on nearly 5 cents to $12.47 on fund and technical buying with hot-and-dry forecasts threatening fill through early August, the critical window the 2026 planting season has been building toward since the wet May start. Meanwhile, cattle bounced to $227.07 ahead of this afternoon's 2:00 PM CT Cattle on Feed report, the monthly number that has the whole complex holding its breath; the market is positioning, not committing, and the report decides which direction that commitment runs.
🎯 THE TAKEAWAY
Wheat's profit-taking clears the decks; soybeans own the weather story now.
Corn$4.64
Soybeans$12.47
Wheat$6.79
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL DIDN'T
Yesterday's call: wheat up, toward $6.91, on Black Sea supply concerns and fund momentum.
Wheat closed $6.79 today -- exactly where it opened the session and well short of the $6.91 target. The profit-taking session that defines today's tape is the opposite of what the call needed; the funds got lighter, not heavier, and the $6.91 level never came into play. Miss, plain and simple. The bull thesis on Black Sea supply is not broken, but the call did not play out today.
Wheat Profit-Taking Hits HardMEDIUM CONVICTION
DRIVERFeedstuffs afternoon recap: wheat profit-taking, no new bearish fundamental driver.
Chicago wheat fell 21 cents to $6.79, a 3% drop that qualifies as the session's loudest move and the overnight surprise the algorithms flagged at 1.5x normal magnitude. The Feedstuffs recap framed it plainly: profit-taking after a solid bull run, not a new bearish catalyst. That framing holds. Wheat has been working higher on Black Sea supply concerns, and a session like this is the market trimming positions into the weekend rather than reversing the thesis. The key level to watch now is whether $6.79 holds as a floor or becomes the ceiling of a failed rally. Nothing in today's news bucket says the bull story is broken; the funds just got lighter before the weekend.
Profit-taking, not a reversal. $6.79 is the floor to hold next week.
Soybeans Own the Heat StoryHIGH CONVICTION
DRIVERBrownfield: hot-and-dry forecasts into early August stressing soybeans during pod fill; fund and technical buying.
Soybeans added nearly 5 cents to $12.47 nearby, closing at 102% of the 52-week range, which means this market is running at fresh highs. The catalyst is specific: Brownfield's morning report cited fund and technical buying driven by hot-and-dry forecasts for large parts of the Corn Belt into early August, a window that overlaps with soybean pod fill and late reproductive stages. The 2026 planting season started wet and behind, which means the crop entered the critical heat window with variable establishment across the Belt. November beans at $12.53 tell the same story; new crop is pricing weather risk, not yet pricing supply certainty. Meal at $335.30 ran with beans; oil at $71.87 slipped 1.2%, the meal/oil split saying crush margins are leaning toward protein demand, not biofuel.
New crop beans at 52-week highs say the market is pricing a heat premium that hasn't fully cleared yet.
🎯 Old-crop beans still in storage with basis firming: $12.47 nearby at a 52-week high is a pricing window. Price it or have a reason not to.
Cattle Bounce Into the ReportMEDIUM CONVICTION
DRIVERUSDA Cattle on Feed report at 2:00 PM CT; cattle bounced off support in pre-report positioning per Brownfield livestock recap.
Cattle: yesterday's break reversed; complex bounced ahead of Cattle on Feed.
Live cattle closed $227.07, up 0.7%, and feeders finished at $342.05, up 0.6%, both bouncing off support with the Cattle on Feed report arriving at 2:00 PM CT today. The Brownfield livestock recap was direct: cattle bounced ahead of the USDA reports, and the question now is whether this is a genuine bottom or pre-report positioning that unwinds once the data hits. The ongoing Cargill processing disruption, which has removed roughly 2% of weekly US slaughter capacity since mid-May, remains the structural drag that has kept the processing-constrained price dynamics alive; today's bounce does not erase that. Cold storage data out this week showed red meat supplies 3% larger year-over-year at 865 million pounds, with pork up 9%, which adds pressure on the packer side. Cattle on Feed is the number that resets this whole narrative one way or the other.
Cattle bounced, but the report at 2 PM is the only thing that matters today. Position accordingly.
Crude Holds $90, Red Sea TightensMEDIUM CONVICTION
DRIVEROilPrice: Russia's Black Sea terminal offline on drone threats; Saudi Yanbu exports down 41% from March peak.
Crude: eased from $90 floor but held above it; Russian terminal news adds fresh supply pressure.
WTI crude fell 1.7% to $90.37, giving back a piece of the week's gains but staying above $90, the line the last three briefings have flagged. The story underneath the price is getting more complex: Russia's largest Black Sea oil export terminal went offline as drone threats followed the Caspian Pipeline Consortium attack days earlier, per OilPrice, pulling another artery out of global supply. Saudi Yanbu Red Sea exports have fallen 41% from their March peak, today’s number that puts the structural tightness in context. The Iran-Hormuz tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz premium that built since early April now deflating on diplomatic progress, created the Saudi Red Sea redirect in the first place; now that backup route is under pressure too. Diesel prices follow crude with a lag; harvest-season exposure is not a small consideration with these supply routes in play.
Crude holds $90 while two more oil arteries tighten; harvest diesel math stays uncomfortable.
⇄ THE SPREAD TO WATCH
November soybeans / December corn ratio
2.57 ratio, widening on the week
November beans at $12.53 against December corn at $4.87 puts the ratio at 2.57, well above the 2.3-to-2.4 range that tends to shift new-crop planting intentions toward corn. The weather premium in beans is doing this: hot-and-dry forecasts into early August are pricing bean risk faster than corn risk. If that premium holds through August, next spring's planting intentions conversation starts earlier than most producers expect.
📍 BASIS PULSE
Bean basis firming in eastern origination; corn basis soft across the Belt.
Soybean basis is firming at eastern origination points as crush plants run hard into the heat forecast and merchandisers move to cover nearby needs. Corn basis is running soft across the Belt, consistent with the seasonal; no ethanol or export catalyst has shown up to tighten it. Wheat basis is choppy after today's sharp price drop; elevators are sorting out where the new floor is before they adjust bids. Watch bean basis next week: if hot-and-dry forecasts verify, the firming accelerates.
🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW
The meal/oil split is pricing something the headline crush margin isn't.
Today's bean complex closed with meal up 0.7% to $335.30 and oil down 1.2% to $71.87, a divergence inside a market that moved in the same direction on the headline. When meal leads and oil lags, the crush is being driven by protein demand, not biofuel demand; that matters because the two demand streams have completely different price ceilings and seasonality. Soybean oil at $71.87 is still at 76% of its 52-week range, historically well-supported, but the meal share of crush value is running above its seasonal average as livestock feed demand stays strong. The China purchase commitment, the $17 billion annual US ag purchase commitment through 2028 announced May 18, skews toward bean and meal exports specifically; if that flow is building as promised, the meal/oil split is the first place it shows up in price structure before it appears in export sales data.
📅 TODAY'S WATCH LIST
- 2:00 PM CT todayUSDA Cattle on Feed report: on-feed above last year confirms supply pressure; placements above 100% of year-ago adds bearish weight to next month's marketings math.
- Monday 3:00 PM CTUSDA Crop Progress: soybean good-to-excellent above 65% takes weather premium out of November beans above $12.53; below 60% adds to it.
- Thursday 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales: soybean sales above 400K MT confirm the heat-premium buying is more than just funds; corn sales below 300K MT keeps basis soft through August.
- Next week, ongoingWatch whether $6.79 Chicago wheat holds as a floor after today's profit-taking; a second close below $6.75 opens the door to the next support band and changes the bull narrative.
- Next week, ongoingSaudi Yanbu crude export data and Russian Black Sea terminal status: if both remain offline or reduced, WTI $90 becomes a floor, not a ceiling, regardless of Hormuz diplomatic progress.
📰 OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
DISEASE
Midwest Poultry Services Recalls 1.5 Million Dozen Eggs
A voluntary recall over possible salmonella contamination covers both brown and white shell eggs from Midwest Poultry Services. Recalls at this scale move through distribution channels for weeks and tend to show up in cold storage and production numbers before they show up in prices; watch the poultry category in the next Cold Storage report.
POLICY
NRCS Staff Cuts Slowing Farmer Access to Conservation Programs
The Michael Fields Agricultural Institute reports that USDA NRCS staff reductions have stalled conservation technical assistance to the point where volunteer groups are filling the gap. With soil moisture running 150% of normal in key districts and the 2026 planting season's wet start still fresh, the timing of reduced technical capacity during a high-stress crop year is a structural concern that won't show up in today's futures board.
LOGISTICS
ADM Invests in Oklahoma Elevator to Move Grain to Livestock Markets
ADM announced a multimillion-dollar investment to significantly increase throughput at its Optima, Oklahoma grain elevator facility, specifically targeting more efficient movement of grain and feed products to livestock markets. Infrastructure investments like this shift basis relationships regionally over the next one to two years; Southern Plains producers should track what this does to local basis as the facility comes online.
Know a farmer who’d want this?
Forward this briefing. Or new here? Subscribe in one tap.
CME Group settlement prices; USDA Cattle on Feed (2:00 PM CT, post-close); Brownfield Ag News; Feedstuffs; AgWeb; OilPrice.com; The Fence Post; USDA Cold Storage report; USDA NRCS reporting via Michael Fields Agricultural Institute. · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT