WEEK AHEAD: POLLINATION WEATHER, WASDE AFTERMATH SET STAGE

Chicago wheat closed Friday at $6.32, holding most of the WASDE-driven move from Thursday. The smaller U.S. crop estimate gave wheat its catalyst, and the market has now held the $6.30 level for two consecutive sessions. That is constructive. The question this week is whether $6.45 resistance, which capped the move Friday, gives way or holds firm. Old-crop wheat in storage: this is still a window. The WASDE raised new-crop production following the June acreage update, so the fundamental case above $6.45 requires either a fresh export demand development or a weather scare in the northern Plains hard red winter country. Neither is on the calendar right now. The farmer action from last week's briefing stands: scale sales on a close above $6.40; next real resistance is $6.45.

Beans closed Friday at $11.96 nearby and $11.91 November, up on fund and technical buying as the news item from Brownfield described. Both meal and oil contributed: soybean meal settled $323.10, up 2.4%, and soybean oil at $70.86, up 3.1%. When both products are running together, the crush margin story is intact and the funds have a reason to stay long. China's $17 billion annual U.S. ag purchase commitment through 2028, announced May 18, has not yet translated into a sustained futures move past the initial bounce, but it is the floor under the demand narrative. The November contract at $11.91 is sitting at 87% of its 52-week range, a level that historically invites some profit-taking from the funds. The export sales print Thursday morning at 7:30 AM CT is the first real test: above 400K MT keeps the chart in the funds' hands; below 300K MT and the November contract revisits $11.70.

Lean hogs ran 10.8% on Friday, closing at $94.78. This is the second major directional session in hogs in three days: the 11.8% drop on July 9, the reversal Thursday, and Friday's run. A market that moves 10% in a day after moving 12% the other direction two days prior is not trending; it is searching. The pork industry is building a National Swine Health Strategy, per Feedstuffs, which speaks to the structural supply uncertainty that is amplifying these swings. Cattle remained split: live cattle at $235.20 held up 1.6% while feeders at $354.60 eased 0.5%. The ongoing Cargill Fort Morgan/Schuyler plant lockout that began Tuesday May 19 continues to put processing-constrained dynamics into the live market; feeders feel the downstream uncertainty more directly. USDA cut 2026 beef production to 25.288 billion pounds, down 150 million from June. That number is already in the market but it is a ceiling on how bullish the live cattle story can get without a resolution at the packing level. Class III milk closed at $15.67, down 8.0%, sitting at just 34% of its 52-week range. Dairy is its own problem and the price is saying it.

WTI crude closed Friday at $71.41, easing 1.4% as the Iran-Hormuz tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz premium that built since early April now deflating on diplomatic progress, continued to unwind. U.S. petroleum exports reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in April according to EIA, which tells you the physical market was already rerouting around the premium before diplomacy caught up. Kazakhstan extended its petroleum export ban six months as Hormuz tensions flare, a reminder that the geopolitical backdrop is not clean even as the premium shrinks. The dollar index firmed to $100.97, up 0.3%, which is a modest headwind for dollar-denominated commodity exports. Natural gas at $2.94 eased 2.3%, sitting at just 9% of its 52-week range. The California-White House energy policy escalation reported by OilPrice is worth watching for input cost implications on ag operations in the Western Belt; it does not move futures this week but it is in the background of the input cost story into 2027.