GRAINS BREAK, CATTLE HOLDS, WEEK RESET AHEAD

Corn at $4.17 Friday, off $0.02¼, and the Dec contract at $4.44, off $0.03¼. Neither number is a disaster, but both are going out at the soft end of the week's range with no fresh buyer in sight. Wheat did the real damage: $6.06, down 14 cents, the Belt's weather pattern doing the work. The 6-to-10-day outlook calls for near-or-below-normal temperatures across most of the Heartland with above-normal moisture, exactly the conditions that cap a weather premium before it has time to build. Pollination is approaching but not imminent, and the market isn't pricing stress it can't yet see. Soybeans nearby at $11.23 took the hardest hit at $0.24¾, though November held relatively better at $11.43 off only $0.04¾. That nearby-to-new-crop spread narrowing is the week's most honest signal: old-crop selling is real, new-crop holders aren't panicking yet. The corn biofuel demand study isn't moving this week's prices, but 30 million acres at structural risk by 2050 is the kind of number that eventually finds its way into the Dec strip.

WTI crude at $76.54, up 2.7% Friday, the best performer in the energy complex. The Iran-Hormuz tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz premium that built since early April now deflating on diplomatic progress, produced a new wrinkle: Lloyd's of London launched a $400 million war-risk insurance facility for Hormuz shipping, which is a market telling you the risk hasn't gone to zero even as the MOU holds. Crude firming on that news makes sense. Natural gas at $3.20, up 1.3%, quieter but directionally consistent. The real story Friday was metals. Gold dropped 3.8% to $4,173 and silver fell 6.3% to $64.91. The dollar index firmed to $100.85, up 0.6%, which is the mechanical explanation, but a dollar that was already near its 52-week high doesn't usually produce a 6% silver move without funds rotating out of inflation hedges in size. That rotation matters for ag inputs in the weeks ahead: if the metals selloff holds, it's a signal that the macro trade is repositioning away from hard-asset protection.

Lean hogs at $95.03, off 1.6% Friday, with cash hogs reported sharply lower to close the week. No structural break, just the seasonal softness that comes when the summer grilling demand narrative runs out of new buyers. Class III Milk at $16.07, off 0.9%, at 36% of its 52-week range, which tells you dairy has been the quiet underperformer all year. Soybean meal at $301.30, off 1.1%, and soybean oil at $69.69, off 1.7%, are both moving with the broader bean complex rather than generating their own story. The crush margin question from earlier this week hasn't resolved: meal and oil both weaker, nearby beans down hard, but November beans holding. The spread between old and new crop is doing the heavy lifting.