AGSIST DAILY · ISSUE #90 — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed
Tuesday, June 9, 2026
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GRAINS TICK HIGHER, LIVESTOCK FALLS ON SCREWWORM FEARS
Wheat leads grain complex modestly higher while cattle and hogs drop on Texas disease outbreak.
🧵 TUE UPDATEWill the grain complex break out of its five-day slide this week?
Wheat closed $5.90, up 6¾ cents and leading the grain complex higher for the second straight session, while the livestock complex tumbled on spreading screwworm fears. Live cattle fell 2% to $236.72 after USDA confirmed three more cases including the first in New Mexico, and lean hogs dropped 2.7% to $96.15. The grain rally looks more like short covering than conviction buying-corn barely managed a half-cent gain to $4.21-but it's breaking the five-day slide that defined last week.
🎯 THE TAKEAWAY
Disease fears trump technical buying; livestock leading lower while grains stabilize.
Corn$4.21
Soybeans$11.15
Wheat$5.90
↺ YESTERDAY'S CALL PLAYED OUT
Processing problems hit milk first, cattle complex next if it spreads.
Cattle broke lower exactly as called when the processing fear spread beyond dairy.
WHEAT LEADS GRAINS HIGHERLOW CONVICTION
DRIVERArgentina cuts wheat and barley export taxes from 7.5% to 5.5%
Wheat closed $5.90, up 6¾ cents and leading the grain complex higher for a second straight session. Corn managed a half-cent gain to $4.21 while soybeans added 3 cents to $11.15, but the moves feel more like short covering than fresh buying. The grain rally comes as Argentina cuts export taxes on wheat and barley from 7.5% to 5.5%, removing some competitive pressure on US exports. But volume stays thin and the funds haven't reversed their defensive positioning. This is stabilization, not a breakout.
Technical bounce after five-day slide, fund positioning unchanged.
LIVESTOCK FALLS ON SCREWWORM SPREADHIGH CONVICTION
DRIVERUSDA confirms three more screwworm cases, first outside Texas
Livestock: processing fears gained from dairy to the entire complex overnight.
Live cattle fell 2% to $236.72 and lean hogs dropped 2.7% to $96.15 as the New World screwworm outbreak spread beyond Texas. USDA confirmed three additional cases Monday, including the first in New Mexico, triggering movement restriction fears across the Southwest. Feeder cattle held better, down just 0.9% to $350.70, but that won't last if the disease keeps spreading. The ongoing Cargill Fort Morgan/Schuyler plant lockout that began May 19 already removed 2% of weekly US slaughter capacity, and now disease restrictions could tighten supply chains further.
Disease spread plus processing constraints creating supply bottleneck.
CRUDE SLIPS ON CHINA DEMANDMEDIUM CONVICTION
DRIVERChina's May oil imports fall to 33 million barrels, eight-year low
WTI crude fell 1.1% to $89.10 as China's May oil imports dropped to an eight-year low of 33 million barrels. The Iran-Hormuz tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz premium that built since early April now deflating on diplomatic progress, aren't adding support when the world's biggest importer is pulling back. Chinese imports averaged just 7.8 million barrels daily in May, the lowest since October 2017, directly contradicting the demand story that kept crude above $90. Natural gas held flat at $3.15 with no weather premium building yet.
World's biggest oil buyer stepping back, premium deflating.
⇄ THE SPREAD TO WATCH
Live cattle / feeder cattle ratio
0.675 ratio, narrowest since March
Feeders outperforming live cattle as the screwworm outbreak hits fed cattle harder than calves. The ratio narrowed from 0.69 last week as feeder cattle held up better, but if disease restrictions spread, both contracts will fall together and the ratio will normalize. Watch for the ratio to widen back above 0.70 if the outbreak escalates.
📍 BASIS PULSE
Western Belt corn basis softening on seasonal pressure
Corn basis west of the Mississippi continues its seasonal weakness as ethanol demand moderates and rail movements slow. Eastern Belt basis holding firmer on stronger feed demand from dairy operations dealing with their own processing disruptions. The split reflects regional feed demand patterns more than futures board action.
🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW
Why screwworm outbreaks fall livestock futures fast
Today's 2.7% hog decline and 2% cattle drop on screwworm news reflects a market that learned hard lessons from past animal disease outbreaks. New World screwworm is a flesh-eating parasite that was eradicated from the US in 1966 through sterile insect releases, making any reappearance a federal emergency. Unlike foot-and-mouth or African swine fever, screwworm affects all warm-blooded animals and spreads rapidly without movement controls. The futures market prices worst-case scenarios first because containment failures can shut down entire regional livestock movements overnight. When USDA confirmed the first case outside Texas Monday, the market immediately repriced the risk from 'isolated outbreak' to 'regional threat.'
📅 TODAY'S WATCH LIST
- Wednesday 11 AM CTUSDA screwworm update; more cases beyond New Mexico crashes livestock further
- Thursday 7:30 AM CTWeekly export sales; corn below 800K MT keeps the technical bounce thin
- FridayFeeder cattle holding $350; break below targets $345 support
📰 OUTSIDE THE PITNews not moving prices today but in the calculus.
POLICY
Senate farm bill draft coming June, markup July
Agriculture Committee Chairman Boozman says the Senate's farm bill draft hits in June with markup scheduled for July. The timeline puts the Senate ahead of the House version, setting up potential summer negotiations. Watch for crop insurance and conservation program changes that could shift planting decisions for 2027.
TRADE
Argentina cuts soybean export taxes gradually through 2026
Beyond the wheat and barley cuts effective immediately, Argentina will gradually reduce soybean export taxes from current levels through 2026. The move adds competitive pressure on US soy exports to key Asian markets where Argentine beans compete directly on price.
DISEASE
USDA hires Texas cattleman as screwworm advisor
John Bellinger joins USDA as senior adviser for New World Screwworm Preparedness as the agency intensifies surveillance efforts. Texas and USDA are ramping up sterile fly releases and expanding animal monitoring across the Southwest to contain the outbreak before it spreads further.
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CME Group, USDA APHIS, Bloomberg commodities, Argentine Ministry of Agriculture · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT