BEANS BREAK $11 SUPPORT, HOGS FALL SHARPLY

Friday's selloff leaves soybeans at three-week lows heading into critical pollination window.

Soybeans closed Friday at $11.21, falling through $11.30 support that held for three weeks and now testing $11 psychological support early this week. The break came on no fresh bearish news, just fund liquidation that started in crude oil and spread across the commodity complex. Hogs led the damage with a 2.8% drop to $98.80, the biggest single-session decline since May 12.

🎯 THE TAKEAWAY

Fund selling drove Friday's break, but pollination weather next two weeks decides direction.

Corn$4.17

Soybeans$11.21

Wheat$5.80

🌱SOYBEANS TEST $11 LINEMEDIUM CONVICTION

Soybeans at $11.21 broke three-week support at $11.30 Friday, setting up this week's test of psychological $11 support. November beans at $11.38 held better but still down 0.6% as the carry narrowed to 17 cents. Fund liquidation drove the break, not fresh fundamentals. Weather models show heat building across the Belt next week, exactly when reproductive development accelerates. If $11 breaks, next support is $10.85 from the May low.

Three-week support broken, $11 psychological level is this week's make-or-break.

🐷HOGS FALL SHARPLY ON CARGILL DRAGHIGH CONVICTION

Lean hogs fell sharply 2.8% to $98.80 Friday, the biggest drop since mid-May as the ongoing Cargill Fort Morgan/Schuyler plant lockout that began Tuesday May 19 continues removing 2% of weekly US slaughter capacity. Processing constraints are creating a supply backup that's pressuring cash hog prices and pulling futures lower. Feeder cattle held flat at $353.90 while live cattle eased just 0.03% to $241.65, showing the cattle complex is pricing the disruption differently than hogs.

Processing bottleneck drives biggest hog drop in three weeks.

⚡ENERGY LEADS COMPLEX LOWERMEDIUM CONVICTION

WTI crude tumbled 2.8% to $90.54 Friday as Iran-Hormuz tensions, ongoing since early April, showed further signs of diplomatic progress despite tanker traffic remaining 90% below normal levels. Natural gas fell 3.6% to $3.23 with cooling weather forecasts reducing power demand across the Southern Plains. The energy selloff triggered algorithm-driven selling across commodities, explaining why agricultural markets moved without agricultural catalysts.

Energy selloff spreads into agriculture via algorithmic cross-commodity flows.

🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW

What fund liquidation looks like: selling without catalysts

Friday's agricultural selloff had no ag-specific drivers-no USDA surprises, no weather shocks, no export cancellations. Yet soybeans broke three-week support and hogs had their biggest drop in three weeks. This is pure fund liquidation: algorithmic selling that starts in one complex (energy) and spreads across correlated assets. When selling has no fundamental catalyst, it often reverses just as quickly once the liquidation wave completes. The question this week: is Friday's break the end of the selling or the start of something bigger.

📅 THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST

MondayUSDA Crop Progress at 3 PM CT; corn above 85% planted keeps weather premium minimal
TuesdayHeat dome building over Iowa and Illinois, reproductive corn and soybean stress window opens
ThursdayWeekly export sales at 7:30 AM CT; soy under 300K MT confirms demand weakness
Week aheadSoybeans below $11 would target $10.85 May low, hogs below $98 tests $95 psychological support

📰 WEEK AHEAD IN AGWhat's brewing for next week.

DISEASE

USDA confirms second New World screwworm case in Texas

Second detection found in Zavala County calf, less than 6 miles from first case. USDA maintaining containment protocols but producers should stay vigilant without panicking, veterinarians say.

POLICY

House passes 2027 ag appropriations with FSIS funding boost

Bill includes $10.8 million increase for state inspection programs and frontline meat inspectors. Could ease processing bottlenecks that are currently pressuring livestock markets.

POLICY

Trump channels $700M defense funds into coal plant revival

Administration invoking Korean War-era statute to finance new coal construction and prop up existing plants. Energy mix shift could affect fertilizer and grain drying costs.

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.

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CME Group, USDA, Energy Information Administration, agricultural trade publications · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT