HOGS CRASH NINE PERCENT AS FEEDERS FLIP SCRIPT

Cattle complex splits as feeder momentum turns while lean hogs crater on technical breakdown.

Lean hogs crashed 8.6% Friday to $90.88, the worst single-session drop in six months as the technical floor finally gave way. Live cattle held $248.90, down just a half percent, but feeders flipped positive at $367.38, up three-tenths on the week. The cattle complex is telling two different stories now, and hogs just told theirs loud.

🎯 THE TAKEAWAY

Feeder strength with live cattle weakness means the complex is pricing different timelines.

Corn$4.56

Soybeans$11.94

Wheat$6.08

🐷Hogs Crater, Cattle SplitHIGH CONVICTION

Lean hogs crashed through every support level Friday, closing $90.88 after an 8.6% meltdown that erased three weeks of gains in one session. No clean catalyst, just pure technical selling after the contract finally broke the $95 floor it had defended since March. Live cattle held relatively better at $248.90, down just a half percent, while feeders flipped the script at $367.38, up three-tenths on strength that showed up just when live cattle momentum faded. The cattle complex is pricing different timelines now: feeders looking at summer grass, live cattle dealing with current costs.

Hogs broke hard, cattle complex split between feeder optimism and live reality.

🌽Grains End Week MixedLOW CONVICTION

Corn closed the week at $4.56, down 11 cents Friday as the July contract gave back Thursday's gains on technical selling. Soybeans held better at $11.94, up four cents as the November contract rallied 16½ cents on short covering ahead of China trade talks. The carry's working in beans, new crop November trading above July for the first time since March, while corn's calendar spread stayed flat. Wheat closed $6.08, down 3¾ cents, marking time until the spring wheat planting window closes.

Beans found buyers on China talk optimism, corn gave back Thursday's technical gains.

⛽Energy Costs Stay ElevatedMEDIUM CONVICTION

WTI crude held $95.42 Friday, down just 30 cents despite US strikes on Iranian tankers in the Gulf. The Iran premium is baked in now, crude trading in a tight band even as Washington says peace talks continue. Diesel costs are tempering cover crop adoption in the Upper Midwest according to extension educators, the first real signal that elevated energy prices are changing planting decisions. Natural gas stayed weak at $2.76, the only energy input giving farmers relief.

Iran premium holding crude above $95, diesel costs changing planting decisions.

🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW

The 8.6% Rule: When Hogs Move This Hard, Listen

Friday's 8.6% hog crash wasn't random. Single-session moves above 8% in livestock futures happen maybe twice a year, and they're almost never about today's fundamentals. They're about positioning, about funds that got too comfortable in a range-bound market suddenly hitting exits at the same time. The last time hogs moved this hard was November, right before the contract found its real floor 15% lower. When livestock moves this violently without news, it's usually pricing something the calendar already shows.

📅 THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST

MondayHogs above $93: Friday was capitulation, below: more to come
TuesdayChina trade talks: any soy purchase commitments change November carry
WednesdayFeeder/live ratio: above 1.48 confirms the complex split

📰 WEEK AHEAD IN AGWhat's brewing for next week.

POLICY

Court Rules Against Trump Global Tariff

The International Court of Trade ruled Thursday that Trump's 10% global tariff was unlawful under Section 122 trade law. The same court that struck down previous Trump tariffs is reshaping trade policy through the judiciary, not Congress.

DISEASE

Iowa Detects First Pseudorabies in 20 Years

First pseudorabies detection in a domestic commercial swine herd in over two decades hit Iowa this week. Industry officials say they were prepared, but any disease outbreak in concentrated hog production changes the risk calculus.

WEATHER

Armyworm Moths Flying North Early

Wisconsin entomologists report heavy true armyworm moth flights moving north this spring, earlier than normal seasonal patterns. Trap counts are already elevated, setting up potential crop pressure during peak growing season.

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.

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CME Group, USDA, Energy Information Administration, agricultural news services · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT