GRAINS CAP CHOPPY WEEK AS PLANTING ACCELERATES

Corn and wheat finished lower while livestock diverged sharply in volatile Friday trading.

A turbulent week in ag markets wrapped up with grain futures pulling back as spring planting gained momentum across the Corn Belt. Corn closed at $4.49 per bushel, down 10 cents Friday, while Chicago wheat dropped to $5.91. The week's bigger story played out in livestock, where cattle strength collided with an 8% hog collapse that left lean hogs at $93.40.

📊Week In ReviewMEDIUM CONVICTION

This week belonged to weather anxiety and planting pressure. Corn surrendered early gains to close 10 cents lower Friday at $4.49, reflecting improved field conditions across key production areas. Wheat weakness accelerated with Chicago futures dropping 15.5 cents to $5.91 as global supplies remain ample. Soybeans bucked the trend with a modest 4-cent Friday gain to $11.67, supported by strong meal demand that pushed soybean meal up 1.2% to $331.80.

Grains gave back early week gains as planting conditions improved.

🐄Livestock DivideHIGH CONVICTION

Cattle markets extended their historic run with live futures gaining 0.9% to close at $249.95, just shy of all-time highs. Feeders pushed even higher, up 1.2% to $371.33. The hog market told a different story, with lean futures crashing 8.2% to $93.40 in Friday's session alone. The divergence reflects tight cattle supplies meeting seasonal hog pressure as spring pigs reach market weight.

Cattle near records while hogs face seasonal reality check.

🎯 Cattle producers should lock protection if live futures break below $245 on Monday. Hog producers consider aggressive forward pricing if June futures rally above $95.

⛽Energy PressureMEDIUM CONVICTION

WTI crude oil capped a brutal week with Friday's decline to $83.85, down 6.7% for the session. The oil sell-off reflects growing global supply concerns and softening demand expectations. Diesel margins remain under pressure just as spring planting accelerates fuel consumption across farm country. Natural gas bucked the trend with a modest 0.6% gain to $2.67.

Oil weakness continues despite approaching planting season demand.

🔍What To Watch MondayMEDIUM CONVICTION

Weather forecasts will drive Monday's grain action as the seven-day outlook takes shape. Current models suggest favorable planting conditions continuing across most Corn Belt states, which could pressure corn and soybean futures further. Livestock futures face technical tests after Friday's divergence. Crude oil's ability to hold $80 support becomes critical for diesel-dependent spring operations.

Weather forecasts and technical levels set Monday's tone.

🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW

The Planting Window Economics

Every day past optimal planting dates costs roughly one bushel per acre in corn yields, but the economic impact runs deeper. Late planting shifts harvest timing, potentially forcing farmers into lower fall prices and higher drying costs. It also compresses the window for double-cropping soybeans after wheat. Smart producers calculate these cascading costs when deciding whether to wait for perfect conditions or plant in marginal fields.

📅 THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST

Monday 7:30 AM CTWeather models update - rain threats across Corn Belt
Monday OpenCrude oil tests $80 support level
Week AheadUSDA Planting Progress report due Tuesday afternoon
Next FridayWeekly export sales data for grain demand signals

Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.