AGSIST DAILY — ARCHIVE
⚠️ Cautious
Monday, April 13, 2026
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CORN HOLDS STEADY AS PLANTING PRESSURE BUILDS
Grains mixed in quiet Monday session while cattle maintain historic strength.
Corn held flat at $4.44/bu as producers gear up for what could be a make-or-break planting week across the Corn Belt. Soybeans eased slightly to $11.74/bu on profit-taking, while wheat gained ground at $5.83/bu. With optimal planting windows opening, weather will increasingly drive price action over fundamentals.
Grains & OilseedsMEDIUM CONVICTION
Corn stayed glued to $4.44/bu in lackluster Monday trade, with December futures at $4.75/bu reflecting modest new-crop optimism. Weather becomes the primary market driver this week as producers enter the critical April 15-May 15 planting window. Soybeans dipped to $11.74/bu on light profit-taking, while wheat bucked the trend with a 33-cent gain to $5.83/bu on export hopes. Fund positioning appears neutral heading into weather season.
Corn steady, beans softer, wheat stronger — weather takes over this week.
🎯 Monitor 7-day forecasts obsessively — any wet weather threats could spark quick rallies to price remaining bushels.
Livestock & DairyHIGH CONVICTION
Live cattle extended their historic rally to $249.20, now sitting 94% above their 52-week low in what can only be described as generational strength. Feeders followed suit at $372.35, while lean hogs retreated to $103.72 on seasonal pressure. These cattle margins are once-in-a-decade strong — the kind that define careers and pay for new equipment. Class III milk held steady at $17.93 as spring flush season approaches.
Cattle at historic highs demand immediate price protection — this doesn't last.
🎯 Lock remaining cattle exposure immediately — margins this extreme have short shelf lives in volatile markets.
Energy & InputsMEDIUM CONVICTION
Crude oil slipped to $104.08 while natural gas jumped 1.7% to $2.72 on late-winter demand. Fertilizer markets remain stable but expensive as spring application season peaks. Diesel costs are workable at current crude levels, but seasonal demand could push prices higher as planting intensifies. Input inflation remains a persistent headwind for margin calculations.
Energy mixed but manageable — lock diesel needs before seasonal spike.
🎯 Secure remaining diesel contracts this week — planting season demand spikes can move prices fast.
Macro & TradeLOW CONVICTION
The dollar index held firm at 100.00 while stocks eased slightly with the S&P 500 at $6,816.89. Gold dipped to $4,735 as real yields stayed elevated. Trade flows remain steady with no major disruptions, though export pace for both corn and beans continues lagging year-ago levels. Currency stability helps keep U.S. exports competitive, but demand growth remains the missing piece.
Steady macro backdrop supports but doesn't drive agricultural markets currently.
🎯 Focus on weather and seasonal factors — macro winds are neutral for now.
🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW
Why Soybean Meal Trades Like It Does
Soybean meal at $329.60/ton represents about 75% of a soybean's value when crushed — meaning meal prices largely drive soybean futures, not the other way around. When livestock feeding demand is strong (like now), meal prices firm up and pull soybean futures higher. That's why watching cattle and hog futures can give you early signals on where beans might head next.
📅 TODAY'S WATCH LIST
- Tuesday 8:30 AMUSDA weekly export sales — watch corn and soybean pace
- Wednesday7-day weather models — any wet forecasts could spark rallies
- This weekPlanting progress reports from key states — delays = price support
- FridayCFTC positioning data — fund flows during weather volatility
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CME futures, USDA data, weather services · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT