AGSIST DAILY — ARCHIVE
↔ Mixed 📅 WEEKEND EDITION
Saturday, April 11, 2026
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GRAINS MIXED AS PLANTING PRESSURE BUILDS

Corn slipped while soybeans gained ground as farmers eye critical weather windows ahead.

A week of choppy trading left corn at $4.41/bu as of Friday's close, down 7 cents, while soybeans found their footing at $11.76/bu, up 8 cents. The divergence reflects growing anxiety about planting windows — corn needs dirt time now, while soybeans can wait.

📊 THE NUMBER
$4.41/bu
nearby corn
Corn's slide below $4.50 this week signals the market's growing confidence in normal planting progress. But one weather hiccup could quickly reverse that assumption.
💬 DAILY QUOTE

“The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.”

Ed Seykota
📊WEEK IN REVIEWMEDIUM CONVICTION
Grains traded in opposite directions this week, with corn sliding 7 cents to $4.41/bu as of Friday's close while soybeans rallied 8 cents to $11.76/bu. The planting timeline divergence is driving this split — corn needs to get planted now, while beans have flexibility. December corn at $4.72/bu held better support, suggesting the market still respects seasonal risk.
Corn weakness reflects planting confidence; soybean strength shows rotation flexibility.
🎯 Use any corn rallies next week to price remaining bushels — market confidence can evaporate quickly with weather.
🐄LIVESTOCK DIVERGENCEHIGH CONVICTION
Live cattle as of Friday's close hit $251.77, up 1.7% for the week and sitting 99% from their 52-week low — essentially at record territory. But lean hogs crashed 12.9% to $90.72, falling back to just 37% from their yearly low. The protein split reflects beef's structural strength versus pork's seasonal weakness heading into spring demand lulls.
Cattle at historic highs while hogs crater — classic spring divergence.
🎯 Cattle producers must protect these historic margins immediately — this level of strength rarely lasts.
🔍WHAT TO WATCH MONDAYHIGH CONVICTION
The 6-10 day weather outlook dominates everything when markets reopen. Any hints of extended wetness in the eastern Corn Belt could flip corn's recent weakness instantly. Crude oil at $96.57 as of Friday's close remains elevated enough to keep input cost pressure on farmers' minds. The dollar's stability suggests no major macro disruptions brewing.
Weather forecasts will drive Monday's opening tone across all grain markets.
🎯 Have contingency pricing plans ready — weather-driven moves can be swift and significant during planting season.
🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW
Why Soybean Oil Matters More Than You Think
Soybean oil at $67.09 might seem like a processing byproduct, but it drives 30-40% of soybean crush margins. When oil prices stay strong — supported by biodiesel demand and food usage — it pulls bean prices higher even when meal demand softens. This week's oil weakness explains why beans didn't rally more despite meal's 3.6% surge.
📅 THIS WEEK'S WATCH LIST
  • Monday 7:30 AMUSDA crop progress report — corn planting pace vs five-year average
  • Monday 8:30 AMExtended weather models for April 14-20 — critical planting window
  • Tuesday morningWeekly export sales — watch for any South American shipping disruptions
  • Thursday 11:00 AMUSDA supply/demand estimates — first real look at 2026/27 balance sheets
Written by Sigurd Lindquist, founder. Reply at sig@farmers1st.com — I read everything.
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Chicago Board of Trade closing prices, USDA reports, weather services · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT
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