AGSIST DAILY — ARCHIVE
🔥 Volatile
Friday, March 13, 2026
🟡 Sponsor this slot →
OATS RALLY 4½¢ WHILE STOCKS CRATER
Wall Street's worst day in months sends safe-haven flows into commodities as spring planting window opens.
Oats jumped 4½¢ to $3.71 while the S&P 500 cratered 1.5% in its worst session since December. Corn held surprisingly steady despite new-crop December slipping 2¾¢ as pre-plant positioning intensifies. With fieldwork starting across the South and Prospective Plantings three weeks out, the real question isn't today's moves—it's whether this financial market chaos changes planting intentions.
GRAINS & OILSEEDSMEDIUM CONVICTION
Oats stole the show with a 4½¢ rally to $3.71 as money fled equities for commodities. December corn's 2¾¢ drop to $4.88 actually matters less than soybeans holding steady—that spread is keeping rotations intact ahead of Prospective Plantings. Wheat shed another 2¾¢ as Black Sea competition remains relentless. The disconnect between nearby strength and new-crop weakness signals a market still figuring out 2026 acres.
Oats rally masks underlying grain weakness—but rotations still favor corn at current spreads.
🎯 Hold pricing decisions until Prospective Plantings—too much volatility to chase today's moves.
LIVESTOCK & DAIRYHIGH CONVICTION
Live cattle gained 90¢ to $226.65 while feeders held flat—a spread that screams feed cost concerns. Class III milk tumbled 31¢ to $16.17 as dairy margins get squeezed harder despite corn holding near $4.60. Lean hogs dropped 77¢ as pork cutouts soften ahead of spring grilling season. The livestock complex is pricing in higher feed costs even when grains aren't cooperating.
Cattle strength can't offset dairy weakness—feed margins remain brutal across the complex.
🎯 Dairy producers should lock in feed costs on any grain weakness—margins are too tight for speculation.
ENERGY & INPUTSHIGH CONVICTION
Crude oil surged $1.84 to $96.25 as geopolitical tensions flare while natural gas eased a penny to $3.25. The oil spike adds $0.08/gallon to diesel costs right when spring fieldwork accelerates—timing couldn't be worse for input budgets. Fertilizer futures remain elevated despite natural gas softness. The energy complex is pricing in supply disruption risk just as farmers gear up for peak demand season.
Oil spike hits diesel costs at worst possible time—spring field operations getting pricier.
🎯 Lock in diesel needs now if you haven't—oil's momentum suggests higher prices ahead.
MACRO & TRADEHIGH CONVICTION
The dollar firmed to $99.76 while stocks collapsed 1.5% in their worst day since December—financial stress sending ripples through commodity flows. Brazil's harvest pace remains 15% ahead of normal, flooding global soybean supplies just as U.S. export demand weakens. The combination of strong dollar and Brazilian competition creates a perfect storm for U.S. export prospects heading into South American harvest peak.
Strong dollar plus Brazilian flood equals export headwinds through spring.
🎯 Export-dependent operations should consider hedging currency exposure—dollar strength isn't done.
🧠 THE MORE YOU KNOW
Why Stock Market Crashes Matter to Grain Markets
When equity markets crater like today's 1.5% S&P drop, institutional money often flows into commodities as an inflation hedge. But there's a catch—if the crash signals recession risk, demand destruction can overwhelm safe-haven buying. The key is timing: early in a financial crisis, commodities benefit. Later, they suffer with everything else. Today's oats rally suggests we're still in the safe-haven phase.
📅 TODAY'S WATCH LIST
- 3:30 PM ETCFTC Commitments — managed money positioning after this week's volatility
- Next WeekSouthern field conditions — spring work starting in Texas and Arkansas
- March 31USDA Prospective Plantings — the year's most important acreage report
- WeekendBrazilian harvest pace updates — running 15% ahead of normal
Know a farmer who’d want this?
Forward this briefing. Or new here? Subscribe in one tap.
CME Group · USDA · Reuters · Bloomberg · Auto-compiled at 6:02 AM CT