{
 "generated": "2026-10-13T10:36:18Z",
 "model": "ge-linear-v1",
 "note": "Ratings-only nowcast of US final yield. band80 is the 80th percentile (nearest rank) of absolute EXPANDING-WINDOW backtest errors AT THIS WEEK: each held-out year is estimated from earlier years only (backtest_years says how many, backtest_window which). loyo_* are the leave-one-year-out figures, which use later years, kept for transparency and not used for the band. trend_mae is the no-ratings baseline on the same years by the same rule; skill_pct is computed from the rounded MAEs as printed. trend is fitted on every US final in trend_window. History rows are append-only: a rerun that changes a recorded week adds a row with its generation time beside the old one. Final USDA yield is written beside them in January, misses included.",
 "crops": {
  "corn": {
   "history_source": "pairs-2000",
   "week_ending": "2026-10-04",
   "nowcast": 180.6,
   "band80": 6.9,
   "mae": 4.2,
   "band_method": "expanding-window",
   "trend": 188.7,
   "trend_window": "2010-2025",
   "trend_n": 16,
   "trend_mae": 5.5,
   "skill_pct": 24,
   "states": 18,
   "backtest_years": 12,
   "backtest_window": "2011-2024",
   "loyo_mae": 3.56,
   "loyo_band80": 6.94,
   "loyo_years": 13,
   "unit": "bu/acre"
  },
  "soybeans": {
   "history_source": "pairs-2000",
   "week_ending": "2026-10-04",
   "nowcast": 53.5,
   "band80": 2.4,
   "mae": 1.3,
   "band_method": "expanding-window",
   "trend": 53.9,
   "trend_window": "2010-2025",
   "trend_n": 16,
   "trend_mae": 2.4,
   "skill_pct": 46,
   "states": 18,
   "backtest_years": 13,
   "backtest_window": "2011-2024",
   "loyo_mae": 1.06,
   "loyo_band80": 1.57,
   "loyo_years": 14,
   "unit": "bu/acre"
  }
 },
 "history": {
  "corn": [
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-07-19",
    "nowcast": 185.7,
    "band80": 3.9
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-07-26",
    "nowcast": 184.1,
    "band80": 4.0
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-02",
    "nowcast": 183.7,
    "band80": 3.6
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-09",
    "nowcast": 183.6,
    "band80": 4.8
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-16",
    "nowcast": 182.6,
    "band80": 7.3
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-23",
    "nowcast": 182.5,
    "band80": 6.5
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-30",
    "nowcast": 183.0,
    "band80": 6.0
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-09-13",
    "nowcast": 182.6,
    "band80": 5.5
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-09-20",
    "nowcast": 182.4,
    "band80": 5.3
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-10-04",
    "nowcast": 180.6,
    "band80": 6.9
   }
  ],
  "soybeans": [
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-07-19",
    "nowcast": 53.9,
    "band80": 2.8
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-07-26",
    "nowcast": 53.8,
    "band80": 2.6
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-02",
    "nowcast": 53.8,
    "band80": 2.5
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-09",
    "nowcast": 53.8,
    "band80": 2.4
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-16",
    "nowcast": 54.1,
    "band80": 1.7
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-23",
    "nowcast": 53.9,
    "band80": 1.7
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-08-30",
    "nowcast": 53.9,
    "band80": 1.5
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-09-13",
    "nowcast": 53.7,
    "band80": 1.4
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-09-20",
    "nowcast": 53.8,
    "band80": 1.2
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-10-04",
    "nowcast": 53.5,
    "band80": 1.6
   },
   {
    "week_ending": "2026-10-04",
    "nowcast": 53.5,
    "band80": 2.4,
    "generated": "2026-10-06T13:45:02Z",
    "band_method": "expanding-window"
   }
  ]
 },
 "held_back": {
  "week_ending": "2026-10-11",
  "iso_week": 41,
  "crop": "corn",
  "backtest_years": 9,
  "need": 10,
  "last_good_week": "2026-10-04",
  "recorded": "2026-10-16T23:04:33Z",
  "reason": "No nowcast from the ratings for the week ending 2026-10-11: this late in the season only 9 past years of corn ratings can be checked against the final yield, and the error band needs 10. The figures shown are from the week ending 2026-10-04, the last ratings week with enough history."
 }
}